ChatGPT Is Actually The Ultimate In Influencer-Driven Commerce
You don't have to believe in "fully autonomous agentic" to believe the future will be influenced by LLMs and agents. You really just need to believe that users spend time there, that users trust the output, and that users will make decisions based on the results.
In this sense, ChatGPT isn't a marketplace at all. It's a trusted colleague whose entire job it is to influence you. One that happens to past the Turing Test with flying colors.
In another sense, it's a marketplace like they all are -- just surfacing brands that are good enough to scheme, scam, or (increasingly) buy their way into the results.
Think about this -- we have known about the power of reviews in commerce for decades now. Influencer-driven commerce has similarly seen a rise since the advent of Youtube + more recently Tiktok. Authenticity is appreciated.
The marketplace side of ChatGPT? It's a little meh. Worse than Amazon, Probably even worse than Google's many previous checkout attempts.
Why? We quite simply know the formula for a great marketplace: price, selection, and logistics. As a result, ChatGPT is not threatening in my view the scaled marketplaces.
For the things you need soon, the value of the marketplace flywheel is not diminished by ChatGPT, it only increases -- even if you use ChatGPT to influence what you buy, it will likely influence "where" you buy less than you might think.
Your "wants" are likely another matter entirely.
Who is first on the chopping block, however? Bad retail, in my mind.
Also, I don't feel the smallest brands will benefit that much. Why? No trust signals. People want "the top", "the best", "the fastest". The answer for our ultimate influencer (ChatGPT) will be "according to what criteria? using what data?"
For that, it will seek proof, which of course it may not find.
As a result, in the short-term I expect it will be used a medium to large-sized brand discovery tool which will likely in the short-term be purchased on marketplaces.
For small brands? Once you get traction it could certainly fan the flames of your flywheel. Don't expect it to solve your "cold start" problem however, because....
* You can't get social proof without purchases, and ...
* you can't get purchases without social proof.
People want to buy what works. Strap in, we are only setting the field for agentic commerce. The real battles are still many innings away, and cannot yet be predicted.
But here's what you already know: People buy from those they know, like and trust. ChatGPT could help you get known if there is already a reason to trust you, but you better give it good reasons to trust you, else no consumers will have a real reason to like and choose you. Which doesn't mean they will buy "from you".
They might still just buy the dupe. Because we're fickle that way.
So yeah, we don't know anything yet.
