Macro factors will weigh on Shopify results this week, tech watchers suggest
Rick Watson, CEO and founder of RMW Commerce Consulting, wonders how much the first full quarter of Deliverr integration will weigh on the company's profitability and whether Shopify will announce a new vertically integrated logistics strategy to the broader market.
“They have kept their sales and marketing pretty quiet to date, despite their investment/acquisition,” Watson said. “It is my thesis that there are still significant concerns about pursuing a down-market strategy in a logistics market dependent on volume and utilization for profitability.”
Watson also questions how much inflation and consumer spending re-prioritization will affect Shopify's merchant solutions revenue, which he said represents the fastest-growing two-thirds of the company’s revenue.
“A majority of Shopify revenue is dependent on merchants whose products are not ‘must haves’ for consumers and are instead ‘nice to have.’ This is the exact type of spending that consumers are deferring,” said Watson, adding that Shopify does not benefit in this kind of environment because it is a collection of diverse boutique stores, not one place for consumers to shop.
“Despite its launch of Shop App, Shopify has not pursued a marketplace strategy for fear of becoming ‘like Amazon’ to its merchants,” Watson said.
Finally, Watson questioned how much entrepreneurship could be affected by economic uncertainty.
“It is my thesis that (Shopify’s) subscription revenue will continue to grow, but perhaps at a slightly reduced pace as there is a slightly greater flight to safety,” Watson said. “The only major concern here is if a greater number of existing accounts churn off, it could weigh down new account additions.”
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