November 3rd, 2025: Walmart Holiday Plans Shows There Will Be Blood, UPS Gains Margin, Plans Strong Peak, But Remains Mired in Uncertainty, Amazon All In On Agentic, and Shopify Merchants Go Live
The Watson Weekly podcast is sponsored by Rithum
Commerce faces rising costs, unpredictable customers, and the rapid rise of AI. But a new Rithum survey shows the bigger risk isn’t tariffs or inflation — it’s internal drag. Slow processes and messy data are holding brands and retailers back. See how they’re tackling it — and why speed and agility will be the real edge in 2026. Download it at rithum.com/ready
==
It’s November 3, 2025 and this is the Watson Weekly - your essential eCommerce Digest!
Today on our show:
Walmart Holiday Plans Shows There Will Be Blood
UPS Gains Margin, Plans Strong Peak, But Remains Mired in Uncertainty
Amazon All In On Agentic - Reports Great Earnings
Shopify Merchants Go Live with ChatGPT Instant Checkout
- and finally, The Investor Minute which contains 5 items this week from the world of venture capital, acquisitions, and IPOs.
==
To hear new episodes of the show every Monday morning, subscribe now at rmwcommerce.com/watsonweekly and wherever you get your podcasts.
==
[PAUSE]
BUT FIRST in our shopping cart full of news….
Walmart's Holiday Plans Shows ... There Will Be Blood
Walmart, not satisfied with only one Black Friday event, is holding two. And with it, it raises the question to me -- is Walmart executing Amazon's strategy better than Amazon itself?
And by that I mean -- your margin is their opportunity. And while the world is speaking about potential rumored Amazon layoffs, better to speak about what Walmart is actually doing.
Here's what's planned:
- a clever Dr. Seuss-inspired campaign called "WhoKnewVille" which draws attention to the fact that Walmart has a lot of brands most people don't even realize.
- 3 new Deals events. Two weeks prior to Black Friday, Black Friday itself, and then Cyber Monday. Cyber Monday being an online-exclusive event.
You see, unlike a lot of retailers, Walmart is used to operating at low margins. And with the growth in profit dollars due to digital services revenue, Walmart is actually in a much better position to drink your milkshake.
More deals than ever, more selection than ever, with some of the best execution in the industry means one thing to me.
Walmart is in a position to clean up this holiday. While the industry has historically focused a huge amount of attention to Amazon being "the everything store", Walmart is coming on strong, growing at least double Amazon, and may even have sharper pricing this holiday.
One thing is clear -- if you are not prepared to operate at Walmart's low margins and high execution, you will be left in the dust as a retailer. Amazon can compete, but who else can?
Not Target. Not Kohl's. Not Macy's. Costco is the only other name that comes to mind - but it does not have the wide assortment Walmart does.
[References:]
Our Second Story
UPS Gains Margin, Plans Strong Peak, But Remains Mired in Uncertainty
The only thing you need to know about what UPS thinks about global trade at the moment is they are still not providing earnings guidance.
CEO Carol Tome' must like she has been in wind-down mode most of her UPS career. It's what happens when your largest customer, Amazon continues to wind down (from a % basis) its volume and your biggest labor contract increases your costs within a few years of you starting. 3 quarters into a 6 quarter Amazon drawdown.
So you do what you can - better not bigger is the mantra for UPS across the board. Fewer parcels (average daily volume down 12%), higher margins. Fewer facilities (closed 93 this year), higher throughput.
Recently decided fewer humans, too, and got rid of about 30k+ employees.
* Trade lanes are changing:
- China to US dropped 34% y/y due to deminimis. But China to rest of world increased 20+%.
- Doubled capacity between India and Europe.
* Operating margin stands at 8.8%
Notable commentary:
* Expects customer attrition to accelerate.
* SMBs notably impacted more in this space due to tough credit markets and cash flow.
* Asked about the Amazon glide down. Tome clarified, "the attrition rate is not where we thought it would be," and that it had accelerated. Amazon's total volume decline in the third quarter was 21.2% compared to 13% for the first half of the year.
* Planning to take about $3.5B in cost out of the system.
* Top 100 customers are 80% of their peak surge during holiday. But peak volumes this year will decline due to Amazon glide-down. Still, early forecasts from non-Amazon customers plan for a surge in peak volume.
* UPS eliminated about 48,000 jobs this year - big number.
All told, I think UPS is caught on a roller coaster at the moment, where each action in global trade affects shippers, which in turn affects UPS. Amazon glide-down is also a huge backdrop, as is the rise in healthcare as a larger component of logistics.
[References:]
If you’re a regular listener of the Watson Weekly, you’ll love our free newsletter as well. Get insider access to events, reports, and other exclusive content by signing up for our e-mail newsletter at rmwcommerce.com/newsletter. A few clicks is all it takes.
[PAUSE]
And Our Last Story
Amazon All-In On Agentic, Reports Great Earnings
First things first, Amazon revealed that it will cooperate with third-party agents at some point, and it's already negotiating terms. I read this as OpenAI. So, the last domino has essentially already fallen.
Layoffs:
* It was always about culture. 14,000 cultural misfits.
So, ... it's day 2, and we fired some people. Got it. That AI thing was a big media head fake.
Agentic:
* Rufus has generated $10B in incremental annualized sales. (would love to see this attribution model)
* Rufus monthly users up 140% y/y, and interactions up 210% y/y.
* Rufus customers 60% more likely to complete a purchase. (!!) This stat is wild.
* Amazon believes agentic will "expand the amount of shopping done online" and that will ultimately be great for Amazon since we have our traditional value prop of wide selection, great value, and quick delivery.
* Throws shade on existing agentic experiences: no personalization, no shopping history, wrong delivery estimates.
* "We’re also having conversations with and expect over time to partner with third-party agents. " Boom.
* "reminds me in some ways of the beginning of search engines many years ago being sources of discovery for commerce, and you had to figure out the right ways to work together." (like cutting off Google Shopping/ads every few years to test things)
* If you know what you want to buy, there are few experiences that are better than coming to Amazon.
* I think AI and agentic commerce are going to change the experience online where you’re narrowing what you want when you don’t know is going to get better online than it even is in physical environments.
Amazon feels agentic will be best at research and narrowing choices for consumers.
Financials:
* Revenue WW $180.2 billion, a 12% increase y/y ex-FX
* Excluding layoffs + settlement, WW op income would have been $21.7 billion or $1.2 billion above the high end of our guidance range.
* In the North America segment, third quarter revenue was $106.3 billion, an increase of 11% year-over-year.
Marketplace:
* worldwide third-party seller unit mix was 62%, up 200 basis points from Q3 of last year.
* 14% more selection since last q from brands like North Face, etc.
Supply chain:
* On track to deliver fastest speeds ever for Prime members in 2025.
AWS:
* Project Rainier has ~500k Trainium2 chips, on track for 1M by end of year. (Doesn't Elon have 220k?). (Anthropic)
* Throwing shade on faster growing competitors with a much smaller base.
* AI has re-accelerated AWS growth to 20.2%
Grocery and Essentials:
* Everyday Essentials growing 2x rest of business (hello? wouldn't this match Walmart's growth)
* Really pushing perishables into unified cart into same-day facilities. Expanded that to 1,000 cities around the U.S. and will be in 2,300 by the end of the year.
* Claims it is a top 3 grocer even if you don't consider Whole Foods.
[References:]
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7389990785150046208/
It’s That Time Friends, for our Investor Minute. We have 5 items on the menu today.
First
Canada Goose Draws Take-Private Bids, Bain Weighs Exit
Luxury apparel brand Canada Goose, valued at $1.35 billion, has received multiple bids for a take-private acquisition, with its controlling shareholder, Bain Capital, considering an exit.
Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/27/canada-goose-draws-take-private-bids-bain-weighs-exit.html
Second
Pacific Avenue Capital Partners to Acquire LKQ's Pick Your Part Unit for $410M
Private equity fund, Pacific Avenue Capital Partners, has acquired LKQ's self-service segment, Pick Your Part, for an enterprise value of $410 million. LKQ will use proceeds of the sale for debt repayment.
Link: https://pe-insights.com/pacific-avenue-capital-partners-to-acquire-lkqs-410m-pick-your-part-unit/
Third
Klarna Goes Public in the US
Swedish fintech company Klarna filed and went public in early September, raising $1.37 billion. The company now trades on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) with a market cap of about $14 billion.
Link: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/02/klarna-ipo-in-us-to-raise-up-to-1point27-billion-in.html
Fourth
Click Labs Acquires Evermile to Power AI-Driven Retail Operations for SMEs
Click Labs, a SaaS provider specialising in logistics and hyperlocal commerce, announced that it has acquired Evermile, a retail automation platform, for an undisclosed amount. The acquisition enables Click Labs to offer services for small and medium-sized retailers.
AND FINALLY …
ID.me Raises $340M In Series E Funding to Combat AI-Driven Fraud and Expand Secure Digital Identity
Digital identity platform ID.me announced that it raised $340 million in Series E funding, which will be used to expand access to secure digital identity and to stop AI-driven fraud.
[PAUSE]
Did you know that RMW Commerce has another podcast? Check out The Watson Weekend for an unfiltered and lively eCommerce chat each week with me, Rick Watson, my co-host Jess Lesesky, and an array of interesting guests and topics. All focused on eCommerce. You can find the Watson Weekend by searching for it on iTunes, Spotify, or Youtube.
That’s all for this week! Till next time Watsonians.....
[PAUSE]
Hi, I’m Rick Watson, CEO and Founder of RMW Commerce Consulting and host of the Watson Weekly podcast - your essential eCommerce Digest.
To hear new episodes of the show every Monday morning, subscribe now at rmwcommerce.com/watsonweekly and wherever you get your podcasts.
