November 24th, 2025: Walmart Plans a CEO Transition, Commerce Operations Foundation Critical to Our Agentic Future, OpenAI Coming for Operating Systems and Walmart Earnings Call Important for Everyone
The Watson Weekly podcast is sponsored by Rithum. Commerce faces rising costs, unpredictable customers, and the rapid rise of AI. But a new Rithum survey shows the bigger risk isn’t tariffs or inflation — it’s internal drag. Slow processes and messy data are holding brands and retailers back. See how they’re tackling it — and why speed and agility will be the real edge in 2026. Download it at rithum.com/ready. That's R-I-T-H-U-M.com/ready
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It’s November 24, 2025 and this is the Watson Weekly - your essential eCommerce Digest!
Today on our show:
Walmart Plans a CEO Transition
Commerce Operations Foundation Critical to Our Common Agentic Future
Intuit's Announcement Makes it Clear: OpenAI Coming for Operating Systems
Walmart Earnings Call Important for Everyone to Understand
- and finally, The Investor Minute which contains 5 items this week from the world of venture capital, acquisitions, and IPOs.
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BUT FIRST in our shopping cart full of news….
Walmart Plans a CEO Transition
With a merchant and operational focus, John Furner who has been named as the incoming CEO has had a storied Walmart history, which is both similar and different to his previous boss Doug McMillon who has been the CEO of Walmart for the past 12 years - quite a period of growth and change.
Doug spent more time in Walmart International, and took big, bold risks on eCommerce, acquiring Jet to disrupt itself -- giving Marc Lore broad authority to experiment, ... until, he didn't.
With detailed knowledge of mostly US operations, John Furner is perhaps more in place to optimize and grow the portfolio than take big risky new bets. Which at this stage, may be quite appropriate. Here are some thoughts based on publicly available information:
* Don't stray too far from the core
* Leaning into the digital transformation and AI focus that McMillon pioneered
* Continuing to lean into the digital services profit growth
Of course, we know that John Furner had one of the largest hands in building these new businesses as leader of the US in the past 6 years. He is known as a no-nonsense operator.
It's worth noting, that Furner does not have the same broad International background that McMillon did (Furner spent 3 years leading merchandising/marketing for Walmart China, whereas McMillion spent 5 years running all of Walmart International). It could say something.
Expect the company to lean considerably harder into AI-driven transformation. Expect the company to continue to stay true to the Walmart formula: make the business more efficient, give the gains back to customers, repeat.
In fact, you might say it's almost certain that Furner could continue to make Walmart one of the most efficient and customer-centric retailers in the world. What is not yet known, however, is will he see opportunities to take big risky bets and in what areas?
One thing about Walmart, it's not typically known for these types of "moonshot" projects like Google and Amazon have typically been known for. (think about Amazon: AWS, Zoox autonomous vehicles, Fire Phone).
The smart money expects that not to change too much on Furner's watch.
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[References:]
Our Second Story
Commerce Operations Foundation Critical to Our Common Agentic Future
I wanted to be one of the first people to congratulate Kelly Goetsch on the launch of the Order Network eXchange (onX) specification, spinning up another industry coalition - the Commerce Operations Foundation - and setting a path to evolve the specs and collaboration into the future.
What problem does it solve - in my view?
In short, everytime any agent wants to interact with orders, it shouldn't have to do it differently than any other agent that has ever been invented. Capturing and modifying orders, returns and exchanges, and more.
Commerce is an ecosystem more than most industries. Many are surprised exactly how connected and dependent seemingly disparate companies are to each other. Collaboration is essential.
But back to OnX. Who cares right? After all, to build a spec is nothing. Even a spec built on MCP. Andrew Tanenbaum (who wrote the canon on Operating Systems back in the day) once said: "The great thing about standards is that there are so many of them."
In short, standards are nothing without trust.
And the trust of the industry is something that Kelly has in spades. Trust builds coalitions, standards bodies, and open collaboration. It's happening again, and we're all witnessing it.
Where could it go?
To me, this is the raw plumbing of it. The vision can be much more expansive from here. Nothing short of a universal order bus is in our collective future. After all, there needs to be an A2A version of this specification, and we're going to see it being built.
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[References:]
Our Third Story
Intuit's Announcement Makes it Clear: OpenAI Coming for Operating Systems
Apps were previously the domain of operating systems running on computers.
Macromedia made a brief play for Flash to become an app framework but was eventually shut down by Apple, famously by Steve Jobs.
Before that Gmail and Google Maps showed us that web pages could be almost as powerful as desktop apps, but more accessible.
For consumers, the big 3 in operating systems for apps in this day are really Microsoft, Google and Apple. OpenAI is attempting to supplant them by becoming a new ecosystem for apps.
Ultimately, OpenAI isn't just coming for one company, it's ambition has set the course for it coming at everyone. Google is a clear threat because OpenAI could take search share. But Apple and Microsoft could be threatened not only from OpenAI's AI prowess, but also from its forays into applications.
If Google search is slowly supplanted by OpenAI for "helping consumer"-type tasks, then it could setup a virtuous cycle. The more apps make OpenAI versions of themselves, the more useful it is to consumers. The more useful it is to consumers, the more apps build versions for OpenAI.
It's through this lens that I analyze Intuit's $100M deal with OpenAI, which certainly gets your attention. It's easy to be cynical, but such types of deals at these numbers are rare.
This kind of approach will frankly not cut out SaaS itself, but it could shift the new balance of power that SaaS lives within. Many new kinds of apps could find a cozy home inside ChatGPT itself, rather than building their own "custom" SaaS app. Many apps could choose both paths.
Would I want my financial data accessible via ChatGPT? Maybe. Frankly, I already use it for a lot of spreadsheet and accounting tasks. I've been building business forecasting tools for the past few weeks already. Better tooling from Intuit into ChatGPT could just accelerate this.
I've mention the word "super app" here before which I know rubs some people the wrong way, because the analog isn't really to how China has built their unique ecosystem. It really is more akin to an operating system or virtual operating environment which becomes a host for any number of apps in the future.
And while it won't be for everyone - now - if adoption continues on a hockey stick, it is not likely that many people will be able to avoid it. Which to me means fragmentation in the short and medium term.
You might still have a "native" SaaS app, but if you are not building the latest hooks for your app into ChatGPT, or building it entirely natively there, it could be like a brand not being on Amazon in the future. Sure, it's possible, but for who is it wise?
You may not think this is possible or wise yet, but that's where this is headed from OpenAI's point of view.
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[References:]
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And Our Last Story
Walmart Earnings Call Important for Everyone to Understand
L;DR – What You Need to Know
eCommerce is the Growth Engine: Global eCommerce was up 27%, with Walmart U.S. at 28% and every segment growing above 20% — powered by store-fulfilled delivery, marketplace, and advertising. Operating income is growing faster than sales, which is growing faster than inventory.
Ads + Membership is the Profit Engine: Walmart spoke for a long time in the past about transforming its P&L. Well, it’s transformed. Now fully 33% of adjusted operating income is from ads and membership and growing.
Predictive Agentic Makes an Appearance: From OpenAI-powered shopping through ChatGPT to predictive, auto-built baskets in Chile and heavy supply chain automation, Walmart is quietly building a very tech-forward retail machine.
In short, Walmart is no longer just a retailer.
Importance of Walmart Earnings?
It’s Predictive for the Rest of Us
Why do I listen to earnings calls? While backward looking by definition, I also feel that earnings are predictive of the future. The giants have to report earnings, everyone else does not.
We can learn from what’s happening with the giants, and it gives us clues to our own business in the kinds of things we should or should not be investing in.
OK, let’s dive in.
eCommerce: The 27% Growth Powerhouse
Facts
Walmart US eCommerce sales up 28%
7th consecutive quarter above 20% growth.
Pickup, delivery, and advertising a key strength.
Rick’s Thoughts
Walmart describes the choice between value and convenience as a false choice. The reason is because of efficiency. You can invest a lot, but if you aren’t efficient, you cannot cut prices enough to deliver value.
Walmart has several margin-expanding revenue streams that they didn’t used to have: memberships and advertising. This allows them the ability to invest in convenience, which is paying off in their fastest-growing consumer cohort — higher-income consumers.
Agentic AI: A Highllight
Has Predictive Agentic Commerce Arrived? One killer call-out on the call was Walmart Chile eCommerce has created this feature which is now driving fully 20% of eCommerce sales in the country. Here’s how it works:
Walmart predicts based on your orders + patterns what you buy and how often.
Sends you a WhatsApp text with a pre-built cart you can then modify and order.
OpenAI partnership gets a mention:
Phase 1 is to be able to purchase Walmart and Sams directly through ChatGPT with checkout only.
More immersive and integrated in the future.
Rolling out OpenAI certifications and ChatGPT Enterprise licenses across the company.
AI Code Assistance: More than 40% of code is now either AI generated or AI-assisted. This as a surprising number to me.
General Management Commentary
Building a personalized and more relevant experience.
Multi-modal: voice, text, image, video, more conversational.
Ads present but contextual and helpful, mentioned bundling.
Walmart US
Facts
Comp sales up 4.5%.
eCommerce up 28%.
35% of digital orders delivered in under 3 hours.
7,400 active rollbacks, half in grocery. 2,000+ rollbacks this year have become the new everyday low price (EDLP).
Walmart+ grew double digits. Q3 net adds strongest on record.
Fashion, home and automotive standout categories.
Rick’s Thoughts
Sometimes strength or weakness in a month can signal issues, but Walmart’s performance was very consistent across months.
Marketplace Sales Up 17% in the United States
Facts
Marketplace sales up 17%.
Automotive, toys, electronics and apparel growing 40+% y/y.
Rick’s Thoughts
Marketplaces got some callouts, but it was not the focus of this call. No mention of Walmart Fulfillment Services, either.
Advertising: 53% Growth, Hits New Heights
Facts
Global advertising up 53%.
Walmart Connect in the US ex-Vizio grew 33%.
34% growth in international advertising, led by Flipkart.
Rick’s Thoughts
53% is a killer number and great progress for the organization. This is the fastest number I have seen from any retailer in their ads network.
Supply Chain is Walmart’s Quiet Killer
Facts
Walmart US now has 35% of store fulfilled orders expedited to under 3 hours.
Sales using expedited fulfillment are up 70% this year.
60% of stores are receiving at least some fulfillment center freight from automated distribution centers.
More than 50% of eCommerce fulfillment center volume is now automated.
One of the fastest-growing channels is deliveries completed in under an hour.
Triple-digit growth from curbside pickup at Sam’s Club, after reducing basket minimums.
Rick’s Thoughts
Expedited fulfillment is one of the key drivers of Walmart margin improvement. Now only is their delivery network getting more efficient and denser, but customers are funding the margin gains - a win/win.
While Amazon is performing, Walmart is putting serious pressure on Amazon on multiple fronts.
The Consumer & Tariffs: Value Still Wins
Facts
Inflation steady at 1.3% with food and general merchandise up. Walmart resisting pressure on COGS.
Tariffs have had less impact on the business than expected.
Walmart described the consumer environment as “dynamic”, with “pockets of moderation.” The disparity in wage growth in lower income groups is the biggest factor here.
All income levels participating in faster delivery choices.
Rick’s Thoughts
Walmart is not worried overall about the consumer. Performance is consistent. The combination of value (which is appealing to everyone) and convenience (which is targeted at higher-income groups) is driving growth.
I thought the note on tariffs was interesting. It’s notable that their exposure to China is less than others.
Forward Looking Guidance
Facts
Full year sales guidance raised from 3.75% - 4.75% to 4.8 - 5.1% for full year sales.
Full year adjusted operating income should come in between 4.8% - 5.5%, with Q4 falling between 8-11%, likely on the strength of advertising.
Rick’s Thoughts
The company is predicting a great Q4, which they say is generally indicated by the Back to School performance. With the amount of historical data Walmart has, combined with their momentum, I would listen to this.
Odds and Ends, and a Wrap
Financials
3Q Revenue up 6% to $10B.
Ads and membership are now 33% of consolidated adjusted operating income.
YTD operating cashflow at $27B, up $4.5B compared to last year.
Inventory levels up 3% overall. In the US, inventory grew 2.6%.
International
Overall
Net sales up 17%.
Adjusted operating income up 17%.
eCommerce
eCommerce up 26%, including Flipkart and Big Billions Day (biggest ever)
700 orders per second at peak, $1B sales in first day.
China
33% of business outside of the United States is digital. In China it’s 50%.
80% of orders in China arrive in under 1 hour. More advanced in digital retail than anywhere else.
60 Sam’s Clubs in China now, with a big pipeline beyond this.
Category Notables
Here are a few items that were mentioned as standout categories on the call:
Apparel grew 5% each month of the quarter.
Fashion, Home, Hardlines, Automotive are strong performers.
Grocery gained share, and general merchandise grew.
Health/Wellness up low double digits.
Some Sources for Further Reading:
Walmart Release and Materials
Walmart Q3 Results Presentation
Wrap-Up
As I read through this report, I think Walmart’s international omnichannel exposure gives it a unique advantage to its competition. Being able to see consumer shifts and run experiments in various markets is essential to their success. But it would all be for nothing if they were not so damn good at execution.
Walmart leadership mentioned on the call that they feel they are setting a new standard for omnichannel retail. I would tend to agree. The biggest worry from analysts on the call was “are you investing too much of the profit back in the business”. Which from where I sit, seems to be paying returns.
Walmart’s key principles:
Price
Convenience
Broad Assortment
Sounds like a flywheel to me!
[References:]
It’s That Time Friends, for our Investor Minute. We have 5 items on the menu today.
First
Barnes & Noble is Acquiring Bookstore and Keeping Them Independent
Barnes & Noble announced that it plans to acquire Books Incorporated, a longtime Bay Area retail bookseller, for $3.25 million out of bankruptcy. They plan to keep the legacy bookshop as an independent entity with seven neighbourhood locations and two stores operated at San Francisco International Airport.
Link: https://www.barnesandnobleinc.com/press-release/barnes-noble-acquire-books-inc/
Second
Third and Grove Acquires Elva
Boston-based agency Third and Grove has acquired Elva, a Shopify Platinum Partner, for an undisclosed price.
Link: https://www.thirdandgrove.com/insights/third-and-grove-acquires-elva
Third
Figure AI Raises Series C Funding Toward Humanoid Robot Development
Figure, a robotics company developing AI-powered humanoid robots, has announced it has surpassed $1 billion in committed capital following its Series C round, bringing its post-money valuation to $39 billion. The funding will be used to expand production manufacturing, build GPU infrastructure, and launch advanced data collection.
Fourth
Phia Raises $8M Seed Round
Phia, a fashion platform for secondhand clothing, has raised $8 million in seed funding. The AI startup searches the web to help consumers find secondhand clothing through an app and a browser extension.
AND FINALLY …
General Atlantic Partners Invests in OSEA Malibu
OSEA Malibu, a pioneer in seaweed-infused skincare and body care, has received an undisclosed growth investment from General Atlantic Partners. CAVU Consumer Partners, which invested in OSEA in 2021, is exiting as part of the transaction.
Link: https://www.businessoffashion.com/news/beauty/osea-malibu-general-atlantic-partners-investment/
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That’s all for this week! Till next time Watsonians.....
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Hi, I’m Rick Watson, CEO and Founder of RMW Commerce Consulting and host of the Watson Weekly podcast - your essential eCommerce Digest.
To hear new episodes of the show every Monday morning, subscribe now at rmwcommerce.com/watsonweekly and wherever you get your podcasts.
