August 18th, 2025: We Once Made a Deal with Google. The Deal Has Changed, The Unspoken AI Enthusiasm Gap At Large Companies, The Road Ahead for Commerce.com, and An Update On Gnawing Your Arm Off
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It’s August 18, 2025 and this is the Watson Weekly - your essential eCommerce Digest!
Today on our show:
We Once Made a Deal with Google. The Deal Has Changed
The Unspoken AI Enthusiasm Gap At Large Companies
The Road Ahead for Commerce.com
An Update On Gnawing Your Arm Off, or Replatforming
- and finally, The Investor Minute which contains 5 items this week from the world of venture capital, acquisitions, and IPOs.
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To hear new episodes of the show every Monday morning, subscribe now at rmwcommerce.com/watsonweekly and wherever you get your podcasts.
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[PAUSE]
BUT FIRST in our shopping cart full of news….
We Once Made a Deal with Google. The Deal Has Changed
While many are cheering the advent of AI, and are saying "it's here", for most people the consequential aspect of the entire last couple of years has been Google trading the list of blue links for its AI overviews.
If you think your organic traffic has tanked, just be glad you're not a news site.
But what was the original deal we made?
* You give Google all you great content in an open way.
* Google will offer a way for your content to get eyeballs "for free".
In short, like Darth Vader, Google has altered the deal. In reality, it was never much of a deal insofar as, it was never guaranteed. Google has decided that disrupting yourself is a far better fate, and what is the result?
In Q2, Google's search ad revenue was up 12% year over year due to better targeting and results produced by AI. (This is compared to 14% last year -- down slightly, but not as much as your organic traffic, I imagine). As a result, your website's organic traffic seems to have been the tradeoff made to secure those continued search ad revenue gains.
The Movie Team America offers another bit of wisdom to harness our current dilemma: "Freedom isn't Free, It Costs a Heavy F'In Fee. Freedom Costs a Buck O'Five"
Overall, we simply don't know what Google will become next, but we do know what will influence it -- gobs and gobs of advertising revenue. Ditto Meta. Why would anyone would want a global superintelligence created by an advertising company? An answer to a question I'm still waiting for.
Many have not even stopped to think about why they have already moved on from speaking about SEO to now GEO. Beware what new deal you are getting yourself into, without you realizing.
OpenAI is another matter. Compared to Meta and Google, the company is much less beholden to advertising. They could be the ones to purse a more Apple-like approach to the market. The addition of Fidji Simo and Jonny Ive only reinforce this in my mind (Instacart revenue % of ads has been steady at 30% the last 5 years - despite the absolute number going up) and I don't need to speak about Jonny Ive focus on product experience. As a result, I still very much consider OpenAI the wildcard in the market.
>> closer
[References:]
Our Second Story
AI Barbell Effect: The Unspoken AI Enthusiasm Gap at Big Companies
Vendors might find comfortable leaders blocking AI experimentation, and the objections may not show up actively but more silently.
I've been interviewing SaaS CEOs who are exploring how to adopt software, some of them have reported to me that counterparts and old colleagues at big companies are discovering a barbell effect inside larger organizations.
On one side, you have a group of change agent senior leaders who want to make things happen.
Then you have a "middle group" of employees that are just comfortable. Not wanting to change or investigate much. Note they are not truly incentivized to do so either.
Then you have rank and file employees that are willing to create their own mandate. Sticking their own neck out, creating experiments, using the latest tools, sharing knowledge. This group is often politically inexperienced and unfamiliar with selling change in the wider organization.
In the middle of the barbell is the problem. Giving lip service to the CEO's AI noises, and blocking widespread organizational adoption.
The only solution is simple: demonstrated success. Slowly add to your user group, share successes, teach new skills and learnings. Telling people to try it and expecting them to listen is not enough.
Showing them, holding their hand, and seeing the light come on is the only way forward. Confidence in anything new only comes from repeated demonstrated success. Otherwise, employees who simply don't "get it" will never get there for fear of looking dumb.
For software providers this is a warning call. You are in the early adopter/pioneer phase. If you are selling pioneer AI software to homesteaders focused only on their year over year numbers, your software better be incredibly easy to adopt, not take massive tech investment, and generate less than 30 day ROI.
Otherwise, be prepared for an uphill battle. After all, people still gotta hit their numbers.
[References:]
Our Third Story
The Road Ahead for Commerce.com
1 - BigCommerce: If B2B is "the" thing, then it's hard to scale a B2B platform that isn't married to an ERP. The ridiculous number of niches in what people call B2B make it difficult to achieve the same echo chamber effect that exists in B2C.
Of course there are too many damn niche ERPs to make this viable, but ... if you pick on a good growing one (see next), the valuation could solve your problem.
I would love to see the ultimate PE buyer be an ERP. Acumatica was just acquired by Vista Equity for $2B. CMRC market cap is $300M.
You can't B2B without an ERP. Just saying. Also if you are really just a flexible front-end to an ERP.... then combine this with Makeswift don't separate it.
This is ultimately the destination, so how do you get there?
2 - On Makeswift
* Makeswift was acquired in 2023, you might mark that time as "Peak MACH". BigCommerce messaging (still) suffers from somewhat commercetools FOMO.
* 2 years after Frontastic was acquired by ct, so they could point at an approach.
* Problem is, a generic CMS inside of a platform loses its other platform partners almost immediately.
* If it's the best CMS in the world, it doesn't need to be attached to a flagging platform. The ideal business model for a CMS is to be used across any ecom platform ever and across many industries that would never even need commerce.
* If (one of) the real problem is the native "page builder" inside of BigCommerce is hot garbage (narrator: it is hot garbage), then I should not know the name Makeswift at all, it should just be called BigCommerce.
* If the narrative is that agentic is the thing, why do I need a front-end website? (narrator: it is their message)
* We have problems in every direction here. "Commerce" should have just found a buyer for Makeswift, or took the lumps.
In other words, probably should have blamed it on the last guy. Now, you own it. More complicated.
All this to say, this company was ultimately a feature. Personally I think you unnecessarily cheapen the rebrand slightly by elevating this feature to the same level as Feedonomics as BigCommerce.
3 - Feedonomics
It's the future, but it's also not incredibly straightforward. The best asset is the stickiness of the relationships. The entire thing needs to be reinvented, but there is a foundation to work with.
All this to say, kudos to Travis taking a point of view and steering the ship in a direction. Here’s to seeing what the next 12 months looks like.
[References:]
[PAUSE]
And Our Last Story
An Update On Gnawing Your Arm Off, or Replatforming
If anything this replatform prediction has aged better than almost anything I've ever written. Even if you are a platform company, selling the platform is turning out to be bad business. Many conversations produced these thoughts.
* Shopify Enterprise, B2B, and POS businesses will ultimately need more than Stripe can deliver. Surely that has to change at some point? Bueller?
"Who would like to buy some Shop Pay? It's easier than a replatform I promise!" -- said every Shopify sales engineer 3x this week.
We will find out soon if the staying power of Shopify employees outlasts an Enterprise length sales cycle.
* Salesforce loves selling agents, so it can sell data. Also, renewals are a thing. SFDC is still harder to dislodge than most would like to admit.
"Time is a flat circle." - said a Salesforce sales rep in a renewal conversation, or Mr. McConaughey in a Salesforce commercial.
* BigCommerce repositioning Feedonomics after finding it amongst the couch cushions in Austin, TX after a recent remodel.
"Who the hell knew we even had this damn thing!" - not actual Travis Hess quote.
System integrators are pivoting in response.
* Data, Order management, AI, Service, and Marketing are all more attractive businesses than site builds.
"Run Away! Run Away!" Monty Python, or system integrator CEOs.
Also system integrator CEOs: "Why the hell aren't I in a higher partner tier?"
As the great modern philosopher Rosie Perez said in "White Men Can't Jump" -- sometimes when you win, you really lose.
Reminds me of a system integrator winning a new platform build.
[References:]
It’s That Time Friends, for our Investor Minute. We have 5 items on the menu today.
First
Amazon is Acquiring Bee, Maker of a Wearable AI Assistant
Amazon is acquiring Bee, a wearable AI assistant, for an undisclosed amount, according to a LinkedIn post from Bee's CEO and co-founder, Maria de Lourdes Zollo.
Second
Generous Brands To Acquire Health-Ade Kombucha for $500M
Generous Brands, a portfolio company of Butterfly Equity, announced that it will acquire Health-Ade from private-equity investors First Bev and Manna Tree Partners for a reported $500 million. The acquisition will enable Generous Brands to have a portfolio of products that generate almost $1 billion in retail sales.
Third
Little Sesame Closes $8.5M in Series A Funding
Hummus brand Little Sesame has closed a $8.5 million Series A funding round that will be invested in production expansion, product development, and hiring.
Link: https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/28631-hummus-startup-scoops-up-85-million-in-funding
Fourth
Vehicle Checkout Platform Ekho Raises $17.3M in Funding
Ekho, a compliant vehicle checkout platform, has raised $17 million in Seed and Series A funding that will be used to hire engineering talent, improve state-by-state compliance, and product development.
Link: https://www.motorcyclepowersportsnews.com/ekho-raises-17-3-million-power-future-vehicle-commerce/
AND FINALLY …
Buena Vista Creative Acquires D2C Design
Florida-based digital marketing agency Buena Vista Creative announced that it has acquired D2C Design, a Canadian design agency, to grow its direct-to-customer business. Terms of the transaction were not disclosed.
Link: https://www.pr.com/press-release/943358
[PAUSE]
Did you know that RMW Commerce has another podcast? Check out The Watson Weekend for an unfiltered and lively eCommerce chat each week with me, Rick Watson, my co-host Jess Lesesky, and an array of interesting guests and topics. All focused on eCommerce. You can find the Watson Weekend by searching for it on iTunes, Spotify, or Youtube.
That’s all for this week! Till next time Watsonians.....
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Hi, I’m Rick Watson, CEO and Founder of RMW Commerce Consulting and host of the Watson Weekly podcast - your essential eCommerce Digest.
To hear new episodes of the show every Monday morning, subscribe now at rmwcommerce.com/watsonweekly and wherever you get your podcasts.
