Intuit's Announcement Makes it Clear: OpenAI Coming for Operating Systems

Apps were previously the domain of operating systems running on computers.

Macromedia made a brief play for Flash to become an app framework but was eventually shut down by Apple, famously by Steve Jobs.

Before that Gmail and Google Maps showed us that web pages could be almost as powerful as desktop apps, but more accessible.

For consumers, the big 3 in operating systems for apps in this day are really Microsoft, Google and Apple. OpenAI is attempting to supplant them by becoming a new ecosystem for apps.

Ultimately, OpenAI isn't just coming for one company, it's ambition has set the course for it coming at everyone. Google is a clear threat because OpenAI could take search share. But Apple and Microsoft could be threatened not only from OpenAI's AI prowess, but also from its forays into applications.

If Google search is slowly supplanted by OpenAI for "helping consumer"-type tasks, then it could setup a virtuous cycle. The more apps make OpenAI versions of themselves, the more useful it is to consumers. The more useful it is to consumers, the more apps build versions for OpenAI.

It's through this lens that I analyze Intuit's $100M deal with OpenAI, which certainly gets your attention. It's easy to be cynical, but such types of deals at these numbers are rare.

This kind of approach will frankly not cut out SaaS itself, but it could shift the new balance of power that SaaS lives within. Many new kinds of apps could find a cozy home inside ChatGPT itself, rather than building their own "custom" SaaS app. Many apps could choose both paths.

Would I want my financial data accessible via ChatGPT? Maybe. Frankly, I already use it for a lot of spreadsheet and accounting tasks. I've been building business forecasting tools for the past few weeks already. Better tooling from Intuit into ChatGPT could just accelerate this.

I've mention the word "super app" here before which I know rubs some people the wrong way, because the analog isn't really to how China has built their unique ecosystem. It really is more akin to an operating system or virtual operating environment which becomes a host for any number of apps in the future.

And while it won't be for everyone - now - if adoption continues on a hockey stick, it is not likely that many people will be able to avoid it. Which to me means fragmentation in the short and medium term.

You might still have a "native" SaaS app, but if you are not building the latest hooks for your app into ChatGPT, or building it entirely natively there, it could be like a brand not being on Amazon in the future. Sure, it's possible, but for who is it wise?

You may not think this is possible or wise yet, but that's where this is headed from OpenAI's point of view.